A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG	AH
1	Main
2		Brand Name	Procrit		Generic Name			Epoetin alfa
3		Mechanism	Recombinant protein which stimulates erythropoeisis (red blood cell production). Naturally produced in the kidney. 165AA. 30.4kD.
4		IP	European patents have expired (2004). US August 2013? Generic biologics are non-substitutable globally (must be marketed by generic company).
5		Approved	6/1/1989 making it JNJ's oldest drug that is still marketed.
6		Market	20m patients with chronic kidney disease, 67% are anemic (US).
7		Safety	Death and tumor progression with higher doses.
8		Administration	Sub-cutaneous injection, usually given qw versus Aranesp's q2w/q3w.
9		Competition	Aranesp (AMGN). Suing AMGN for anti-competitive bundling. Discounting/Contracting cycle? Roche's CERA. Biogenerics from Teva, Stada. Affymax's Hematide. Shire's Dynepo. Merck EPO.
10			Will Roche enter the market in the US? When will the first biogeneric be approved? How will changes to guidelines affect the competition between Procrit and Aranesp?
11		Reimbursement	Medicare rolling ASP+6%.
12		Guidelines	CKD patients should have a hemoglobin less than 10g/dL for initiation.
13		Usage	Procrit is 50% oncology and 50% is CKD. 25% of oncology is used in "curative" patients (Stage 1-3).
14		Model
15
16		Procrit/Eprex	Q100	Q200	Q300	Q400	Q101	Q201	Q301	Q401	Q102	Q202	Q302	Q402	Q103	Q203	Q303	Q403	Q104	Q204	Q304	Q404	Q105	Q205	Q305	Q405	Q106	Q206	Q306	Q406	Q107	Q207	Q307	Q407
17		Domestic	387	411	458	554	514	554	742	525	691	764	776	803	723	707	703	671	688	582	613	578	565	566	575	540	527	524	522	491	530	449	380	331
18		International	215	230	233	221	254	276	286	278	300	322	320	293	274	308	302	296	289	293	274	272	271	280	269	258	259	284	276	297	287	309	302	297
19		Worldwide	602	641	691	775	768	830	1028	803	991	1086	1096	1096	997	1015	1005	967	977	875	887	850	836	846	844	798	786	808	798	788	817	758	682	628
20		y/y					0.27574750830564776	0.29485179407176276	0.48769898697539804	0.03612903225806452	0.29036458333333326	0.308433734939759	0.06614785992217898	0.36488169364881684	0.006054490413723412	-0.06537753222836096	-0.083029197080292	-0.11770072992700731	-0.02006018054162484	-0.13793103448275867	-0.11741293532338304	-0.1209927611168563	-0.14431934493346976	-0.03314285714285714	-0.04847801578354005	-0.06117647058823528	-0.05980861244019142	-0.044917257683215084	-0.0545023696682464	-0.01253132832080206	0.0394402035623409	-0.061881188118811936	-0.14536340852130325	-0.20304568527918787
21		Aranesp (AMGN)									39	56	114	207	255	348	438	503	543	617	608	705
22		y/y													5.538461538461538	5.214285714285714	2.8421052631578947	1.4299516908212562	1.1294117647058823	0.7729885057471264	0.38812785388127846	0.40159045725646125
23		Epogen (AMGN)					503	518	517	609	512	570	558	620	547	611	626	651	590	633	681	697
24		y/y									0.017892644135188762	0.10038610038610041	0.079303675048356	0.01806239737274229	0.068359375	0.07192982456140351	0.12186379928315416	0.050000000000000044	0.07861060329067637	0.036006546644844484	0.08785942492012788	0.07066052227342556
25		Total Market					1271	1348	1545	1412	1542	1712	1768	1923	1799	1974	2069	2121	2110	2125	2176	2252
26		y/y									0.21321793863099914	0.27002967359050456	0.14433656957928798	0.36189801699716706	0.16666666666666674	0.15303738317756999	0.1702488687782806	0.10296411856474252	0.17287381878821573	0.0764944275582573	0.05171580473658777	0.06176331918906186
27
28		Procrit/Eprex	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008E	2009E	2010E	2011E	2012E	2013E
29		Domestic	500	752	1240	1810	2335.3	3034	2804	2461	2246	2064	1690	1250	1000	900	810	729	656.1
30		International	635	743	854	899	1093.9	1234.5	1180	1128	1078	1116	1195	1100	990	891	801.9	721.71	649.5390000000001
31		Worldwide	1135	1495	2094	2709	3429.2000000000003	4268.5	3984	3589	3324	3180	2885	2350	1990	1791	1611.9	1450.71	1305.6390000000001
32		y/y		0.31718061674008813	0.4006688963210703	0.2936962750716332	0.26585455887781473	0.24475096232357396	-0.06665104837765023	-0.09914658634538154	-0.07383672332125946	-0.04332129963898912	-0.09276729559748431	-0.1854419410745234	-0.15319148936170213	-0.09999999999999998	-0.09999999999999998	-0.09999999999999998	-0.09999999999999998
33		Aranesp (AMGN)					42	415.6	1543.8	2472.9	3273	3838.32499275	4479.32526653925	3583.4602132314003	2866.7681705851205	2723.4297620558646	2587.2582739530712	2457.8953602554175	2335.0005922426467
34								8.895238095238096	2.7146294513955724	0.6018266614846484	0.3235472522139997	0.1727237985792851	0.167	-0.2	-0.19999999999999996	-0.04999999999999993	-0.050000000000000044	-0.050000000000000044	-0.04999999999999993
35		Epogen (AMGN)				1962.4	2108.1	2260	2434.6	2600.6	2455	2460.74	2485.3473999999997	2361.0800299999996	2313.8584293999997	2313.8584293999997	2336.9970136939996	2360.3669838309397	2383.9706536692493
36							0.07424582144313074	0.07205540534130273	0.07725663716814157	0.06818368520496176	-0.05598707990463736	0.002338085539714818	0.01	-0.05	-0.02	0	0.01	0.01	0.01
37		Total Market				4671.4	5579.3	6944.1	7962.4	8662.5	9052	9479.06499275	9849.672666539249	8294.5402432314	7170.62659998512	6828.288191455864	6536.1552876470705	6268.972344086357	6024.610245911896
38							0.19435287065975948	0.24461850052874023	0.1466424734666838	0.08792575102984035	0.04496392496392487	0.047179075646266	0.039097492640118636	-0.1578867111585197	-0.13550041476541486	-0.04774177036773419	-0.04278274372987578	-0.040877692129755894	-0.0389796101756571
39
40		JNJ Sales
41		Procrit/Eprex % of Total Sales
42		Gross Margin	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9
43		Gross Profit	897.3000000000001	913.5	904.5	870.3000000000001	879.3000000000001	787.5	798.3000000000001	765	752.4	761.4	759.6	718.2	707.4	727.2	718.2	709.2	735.3000000000001	682.2	613.8000000000001	565.2
44		FTE	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700
45		Cost/FTE	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.075
46		FTE Expenses	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5
47		Operating Expenses	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5	52.5
48		Operating Income	844.8000000000001	861	852	817.8000000000001	826.8000000000001	735	745.8000000000001	712.5	699.9	708.9	707.1	665.7	654.9	674.7	665.7	656.7	682.8000000000001	629.7	561.3000000000001	512.7
49		Operating Margin	0.8473420260782347	0.8482758620689655	0.8477611940298507	0.8457083764219235	0.8462640736949847	0.84	0.8408117249154454	0.8382352941176471	0.8372009569377991	0.8379432624113475	0.8377962085308057	0.8342105263157895	0.833206106870229	0.8350247524752475	0.8342105263157895	0.8333756345177665	0.8357405140758875	0.8307387862796834	0.8230205278592376	0.8164012738853504
50		JNJ Operating Profit
51		Procrit/Eprex % of Total OP
52
53
54							2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
55					Competitive Entries			0	0	0	0	0	-0.05	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1
56					Pricing			-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
57					Unit Growth - Pre-Dialysis			-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
58					Unit Growth - Cancer			-0.2	-0.2	-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05
59					Market Share			-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
60					Patent Expiry Penalty			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
61
62					Pre Dialysis	0.4	802.4000000000001	732.0937120000001	667.9476609545601	628.6669949091444	591.6963462725274	556.8998675409325	497.942215124056	421.7933064033365	357.28963707633216	302.65033328923244	256.3668652402434	217.16139836627562	183.95151376603653
63					Cancer	0.6	1203.6	896.4412799999998	667.6694653439998	577.1067790647397	526.5406830830872	480.40518843134697	416.3964815299427	341.9206396364602	280.76539787236214	230.54826033970718	189.31285959186783	155.45274015098553	127.64877395306056
64
65					Domestic Forecast		2006	1628.5349919999999	1335.61712629856	1205.773773973884	1118.2370293556146	1037.3050559722794	914.3386966539988	763.7139460397966	638.0550349486944	533.1985936289396	445.6797248321112	372.61413851726115	311.6002877190971
66
67
68						International	2064	2218.8	2053.6800000000003	1902.2340000000002	1763.2365	1635.577455	1518.25108425	1410.3457818375	1311.035019365625	1219.5691423553437	1135.2679717997764	1057.5141311157677	985.7470266753612
69					Pre-dialysis	0.25	516	567.6	539.22	512.259	486.64605	462.3137475	439.198060125	417.23815711874994	396.37624926281245	376.5574367996718	357.72956495968816	339.84308671170373	322.8509323761185
70					Dialysis	0.25	516	567.6	539.22	512.259	486.64605	462.3137475	439.198060125	417.23815711874994	396.37624926281245	376.5574367996718	357.72956495968816	339.84308671170373	322.8509323761185
71					Cancer	0.5	1032	1083.6000000000001	975.2400000000001	877.7160000000001	789.9444000000001	710.9499600000001	639.8549640000001	575.8694676000001	518.2825208400001	466.4542687560001	419.8088418804001	377.8279576923601	340.0451619231241
72
73
74						Total Procrit (WW)	4070	3847.334992	3389.29712629856	3108.0077739738845	2881.473529355615	2672.8825109722793	2432.589780903999	2174.0597278772966	1949.0900543143193	1752.7677359842833	1580.9476966318875	1430.1282696330288	1297.3473143944582
75								-0.05470884717444713	-0.11905328406646842	-0.0829934177626589	-0.07288728378199127	-0.07239039896020938	-0.08990022160789712	-0.10627770249475743	-0.10347906760714098	-0.10072511421187325	-0.09802784238033035	-0.09539811299271339	-0.09284548670074344